Roger Federer is through to his third straight French Open semi-final, and if he safely negotiates it he will beat Jack Crawford’s record for consecutive appearances in Grand Slam finals (8). Should he win the final itself, he will hold the Grand Slam (all four Grand Slam titles to his name) over two seasons. There’s a lot of stake for the great Swiss then, and he can count on the support of the fans, who would love to see the French-speaking Federer finally secure the only major he has never won.
Now 26, Nikolay Davydenko has made it through to his third Grand Slam final and his second here in Paris. He has never gone further. The Russian fell to Mariano Puerta at the penultimate hurdle in 2005, and indeed lost to Argentinians at each of the past three French Opens. The BNP Paribas Masters winner has broken that jinx this year though, beating two Argentinians on his run to the final four. So could this be his time to finally make a final? If so, he will need to upset the odds against one of the all-time greats of men’s tennis.
CURRENT FORM
Some foolish souls wondered out loud whether Federer may be on the decline after his (relatively) indifferent form early on in the clay court season and subsequent split with coach Tony Roche. The Swiss banished any such talk by beating Nadal in Hamburg, simultaneously lifting the hopes of all the pretenders to the French Open. He’s been bang on form here in Paris too, spending less time on court (9hrs 33mins), than the three other semi-finalists. He did lose a set to Tommy Robredo in the quarters, but that only pushed him to play his best tennis of the week in a 7-5, 1-6, 6-1, 6-2 win.
Davydenko arrived in Paris with a clay court title under his belt prior to each of the past three French Opens. This year he hasn’t won yet on clay, but who knows, maybe he’s been waiting to win in Paris. He was in good enough form prior to the tournament, most notably when he took a set off Rafael Nadal in an epic semi-final in Rome (7-6, 6-7, 6-4). He has carried that form into his Parisian fortnight, and his wins over the likes of Nalbandian and Canas will have given him great confidence.
STRENGTH
Federer has it all: a great service, brilliant volley, sublime touch, clever variation, and a perfectly disguised drop shot. Added to those technical attributes, he has a winner’s mentality too, and the touch of class that only the great champions have. Yet he has never won here in Paris, and until he does there will be those who question his place among the absolute legends of the game. So why has he never won the French Open? His backhand seems to let him down at vital times on clay – not as often as some would have you believe – but above all he does not possess the classic clay court game – and has been unlucky enough to run into a young master with the name of Rafael Nadal.
Davydenko is one of the hardest working players on the tour. This is his 16th tournament of the season and seventh straight event. He reasons that there is no better way to hone your game than by playing competitive matches, and that sharpness is very much evident in the way he plays. He is metronomically accurate with his groundstrokes on both sides, hitting the ball cleanly, efficiently and incredibly hard. He has made great strides with his service recently too. His volley is perhaps his only weakness.
TACTICS
Federer should win. He has the ability to change tactics should his first plan fail to come off. Against Robredo, for example, he suddenly began charging the net after losing the second set, and simply overwhelmed the Spaniard. Many observers believe that is a tactic he should reproduce here – and later against Nadal if she gets that far.
Providing he deals with the pressure of a French Open semi in front of a crowd that will be massively behind Federer, Davydenko can trouble the world number one. His return of serve and ability to get in as many first serves as possible will also determine whether he has a chance.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
In eight attempts, Davydenko has never beaten Federer. Perhaps the closest he came was in an Australian Open quarter-final, but in their only clay court match, in Hamburg, Federer cruised past him 6-3, 6-4.
The Russian was left speechless by Federer’s display the last time they met, in the semi-final of the US Open in 2006. Yet he still believes he knows what to do: "You don’t need to play your best tennis. You need to use the right tactics to beat Federer." Optimistic words indeed…
